What we have here is a 1500 bb heater that I got on today. Don't know if someone at pokerstars read my post in the 2+2 forum about getting set over setted 28 times in 5 weeks or not. But today I had a couple really good hands. But for some reason the players were the worse I had seen in a while. Don't know if the government employee's got there paychecks today or what. It didn't hurt that I got paid off when a couple over pairs wouldn't fold when I raised them flopping trips. Usually this doesn't happen as most players even at this level can fold an over pair to a raise. Today I made the best of my value bets even though I still messed up in a couple places. I was well above my stop point today early on but the cards just kept coming so I broke the rule and didn't quit. I got $3 shy of my 100 full buy in mark and then lost $5 so I quit. Just as quick as they were coming the cards stopped. Like someone turning the lights on at the end of the night at a strip club after your buzz has wore off. Anyway this goes down as the biggest single session win that I have had at .02-.05. This could be partially to the super long drawn out break even stretch I had for 20,000 hands last week. But all this really means is that the counter action is going to be a biatch!.
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But back to set over set situations.
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Although a few books have stated set over set situations are much like full house over full house situations. "if it happens its just not your day and put your money in". I think some of these statements must be in general and was wondering the amount of times you are in a set over set situation that you fold?
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I seem to be running into a set over set situation at least 1-3 time a session or every other session. So much to the point that in some instances that I am %90 sure I am in the situation. I play the player off and think I should be able to fold these. I have never breached the three mark in a sessions but I cannot shake these situation. Which brings me to my next question.
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Should I not be playing small pocket pairs as much as I do? Whenever I am getting usually 8-1 from a players bet vs there stack size I will go ahead and set mine. I know Harrington has a number from Harrington on cash somewhere in the 20-1 range. Could this be the problem and a big leak in my game?. I read although I believe in a tournament book that throwing away pocket pairs below 6's is a good idea but I personally think this is -Ev.I basically keep paying off the higher sets but I think I should be able to fold in SOME of these situations.
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This got me to thinking...
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So I went back into my recently purchased Hold em Manager that I picked up at the beginning of last month. From that point as I have not tried to transfer my previous poker tracker stats to this new database. So all hand history is new hand history. I went back and set my filter and picked out pocket pairs and then found my losses and counted my pocket pairs where through the re player i could see I was set under set situation. In just the hand history's where I saw the showdown since the beginning of last month which is roughly 114,801 hands I have had 26 set over set situations where I have had the under set. And 12 set over set situations where I have the over set. So I am running 2-1 roughly Is this not normal?????? This means that once every 4,415 hands I run into this situation where I am the underdog. I am not saying that every situation I should be able to fold set over set.
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I am just asking if others are able to fold or do they just not think about it and shove. As there are certain situations that I find I get that sensation. A player takes a line that reflects a possible set.
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For the amount of set under set situations that occurred to me within the last 5 weeks. If I lost my whole stack in each situation at the current level my losses (not that they could have been prevented) Could have boosted my winnings %77! This is a massive number. This of course would be if each situation was for full stacks. It would take some time to go back and actually add up the occurrences in bb amount.
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Still was just looking at a large hole in my numbers and thought this could be addressed. I know there is no way to eliminate these situations. But even if I could correctly identify and get away from %25 of these situations it might be help full. Even though every ones thoughts of the times I fold when I am indeed ahead. Would probably dwarf, and reduce my profit by more than it would. Had I simply called and or gotten my money in is correct.
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